How will Covid-19 affect house prices in Deeside?
How will covid-19 affect house prices in Deeside?
So firstly it’s important to point out this is only my opinion. There is no one out there that can give you a definitive answer to this but using my knowledge and experience, which includes working through the recession of 2008-2012 I feel well qualified to give you my views.
One thing, in times of crisis and trouble is whatever you think the future will look like it never ends up as bad as what you think. Yes, this is serious...yes it will cause a downturn in the market but what you have to remember about this country is it’s generally overpopulated and there is always going to be a demand for buying houses.
The obvious answer to all this is it all depends how long it lasts....I’ll firstly look at the most likely and probably the best outcome we can hope for.
Lockdown until late May, social distancing still applies but in general people go back to work and all house sale restrictions are lifted.
In this scenario I think there is a good chance the market would go back to how it was before very quickly - within a month or two. I’d foresee a funnel of buyers and sellers and for late summer/early autumn being very busy. I think house prices would return to the same levels as they were prior covid-19.
Lockdown until mid summer...government lift all restrictions...lenders go back to normal...
This is where I would start to foresee problems. The economy is suffering badly from all this as it is but the longer it goes on, the more jobs will be lost, the more people will be cautious of spending money and will be far more inclined to think - let’s move next year when all this settles down. You may still see some demand as I still think there will be a funnel of first time buyers who have saved up lots of money during the lockdown. They’ll think they can get a bargain perhaps but the likelihood is that there won’t be many houses coming on the market so house prices may still be ok in this scenario.
Lockdown until autumn/Xmas or longer...
This would be catastrophic and I would expect a full on recession. This would likely have a deep impact on house prices sending them tumbling. I think this scenario is very unlikely as the government would have to make some huge decisions on whether the impact of a recession which would cause many deaths and lots of poverty is worth it over a lockdown from the virus. There would be some kind of tipping point where they would have to look at which decision is going to cause more harm. Let’s hope and pray it doesn’t come to this or go on beyond the Summer.
I hope that’s give you some insight into my thoughts. Remember be kind and look after each other. We all need to pull together to get through this.
Stay safe everyone...
Ben Roberts
MD