On Sunday night the government gave its road map on what will happen next and how we venture out of lockdown. I said in my first article that the impact on the local housing market would very much depend on how long we were locked down for however there already have been many job losses in the area and it’s not as easy as first foreseen to just lift a lockdown - it’s very much a staged process over many months.

We now know that the UK government is looking to encourage people back to work however there is still some confusion as the Welsh government is saying the opposite! All this does is cause uncertainty which is not good for the economy. Hopefully soon they can all be singing off the same hymn sheet and people can start to go back to work obviously as long as it is deemed safe to do so. From June 1st it is looking like the retail sector will slowly start to open back up. All encouraging signs for the economy which therefore is good for the housing market.

I am not expecting things to fully go back to normal until the Autumn however if the government lifts restrictions on estate agents in June at least we can start to see some sales progression and activity in the market again. I would expect a funnel of first time buyers who have managed to save up a decent deposit during lockdown. This does however depend on mortgage availability which at present is not great and a FTB would need at least a 10% deposit unlike just before lockdown when they only needed a 5% deposit. I am hoping the government encourage lenders to come back quickly with 95% LTV mortgages. If this does happen I’d definitely expect to see the local housing market moving and perhaps prices won’t be affected too much. In the last recession this was key - I always said that the market would never recover without the availability of 95% mortgages, in 2012/13 as soon as they did bring out the high LTV mortgages it started to improve and house prices started to rise from that point on. Think about it - if you're in your mid 20's how hard would it be to save £15k (10% on £150k house)? Now ask how hard it would be to save half of that? £7,500 - there is light at the end of the tunnel, £15,000 and it’s an impossible dream without help from parents etc.

I can't stress how important first time buyers are to a housing market - without them you haven’t got a market as nothing else moves.

I also think you will see quite a few houses coming on the market just after lockdown is lifted. We have now 9-10 ready and waiting. If you think about it what have people been doing during all this time at home? If they were thinking of moving they'll be preparing the house for sale so I’d expect some really immaculately presented properties to come on the market in the next few weeks. This will also give the housing market a boost as long as the demand is there.

I'm fairly optimistic as long as we are fully operational mid-June and all the house moving restrictions are lifted. It’s extremely hard to give an exact figure but i think overall house prices will hold in the short term but may drop a little over the next year when the economic impact of Covid starts to take hold.

Stay safe

Ben